Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

72.02 – 45.1

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

153 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 47.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 224.4 ±10.5

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 43.63Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10400DART Doane Academy Robotics Team

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX 26.13Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9027PATH to Domination

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 2.26Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 249 ±11

10070Ghost Bots

Season APEX 102.6Event APEX 28.81Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10993EP Robotics

Season APEX 92.7Event APEX -3.09Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1626Falcon Robotics

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 19.38Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 862, 10400, 9027

/ 100 compat

Projected

72 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 862, 10400, 9027

Auto

21.0 33%

Teleop

36.3 56%

Endgame

7.3 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10070, 10993, 1626

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10070, 10993, 1626

Auto

15.0 50%

Teleop

7.0 23%

Endgame

8.2 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score72pts

Blue projected score45.1pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.9
Score range: 29–88
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 212 vs event baseline 90.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

224.4Season APEX249

21Auto15

36.3Teleop7

7.3Endgame8.2

1Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	19
teleop	96	19
endgame	22	21
foul	10	0
total	153	59

Result

Final score

153 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 47.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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