Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

81.49 – 46.41

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

56 – 26

Prediction correct · off by 22.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 390.1 ±9.8

321RoboLancers

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 11.61Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10979Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 180.2Event APEX 39.5Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

427LANCE-A-LOT

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 30.38Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 188.5 ±12.9

5684Titans of Tech

Season APEX 24.1Event APEX 10.17Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9014Vulcan Mechanics

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 26.26Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2234Alternating Current

Season APEX 96.9Event APEX 9.98Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 321, 10979, 427

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 321, 10979, 427

Auto

21.6 31%

Teleop

31.0 45%

Endgame

16.3 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5684, 9014, 2234

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5684, 9014, 2234

Auto

10.4 22%

Teleop

26.4 55%

Endgame

10.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score81.5pts

Blue projected score46.4pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35.1
Score range: 29–98
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 82 vs event baseline 91.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

390.1Season APEX188.5

21.6Auto10.4

31Teleop26.4

16.3Endgame10.9

11Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	17
teleop	24	3
endgame	17	6
foul	0	0
total	56	26

Result

Final score

56 – 26

Prediction correct · off by 22.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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