Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

104.67 – 58.67

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

148 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 27.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 466.8 ±11.9

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 80.49Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

709Femme Tech Fatale

Season APEX 84.1Event APEX 2.23Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

486Positronic Panthers

Season APEX 81.1Event APEX 21.95Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 277.6 ±11.4

708Hatters Robotics

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 19.11Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2095Direct Current

Season APEX 47.5Event APEX -2.65Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 91

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 42.21Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2539, 709, 486

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2539, 709, 486

Auto

7.4 7%

Teleop

55.1 51%

Endgame

45.3 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 708, 2095, 862

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 708, 2095, 862

Auto

8.6 19%

Teleop

18.8 43%

Endgame

16.8 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.61 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score104.7pts

Blue projected score58.7pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46
Score range: 43–121
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 219 vs event baseline 91.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

466.8Season APEX277.6

7.4Auto8.6

55.1Teleop18.8

45.3Endgame16.8

7Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	21
teleop	63	37
endgame	55	13
foul	0	0
total	148	71

Result

Final score

148 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 27.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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