Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

171.06 – 141.71

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

75 – 152

Prediction missed · off by 53.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 428.1 ±11.2

6226Blue Devils

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 13.12Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10993EP Robotics

Season APEX 92.7Event APEX 5.46Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

341Miss Daisy

Season APEX 278.9Event APEX 152.48Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 457.8 ±9.8

1089Team Mercury

Season APEX 150Event APEX 19.56Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10070Ghost Bots

Season APEX 102.6Event APEX 29.32Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2607The Fighting RoboVikings

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 92.83Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6226, 10993, 341

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6226, 10993, 341

Auto

33.2 20%

Teleop

106.9 64%

Endgame

26.6 16%

Strengths

· 341 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1089, 10070, 2607

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1089, 10070, 2607

Auto

25.3 19%

Teleop

62.5 47%

Endgame

46.5 35%

Strengths

· 2607 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score171.1pts

Blue projected score141.7pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.3
Score range: 126–187
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 227 vs event baseline 90.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

428.1Season APEX457.8

33.2Auto25.3

106.9Teleop62.5

26.6Endgame46.5

57Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	36
teleop	30	62
endgame	0	39
foul	5	15
total	75	152

Result

Final score

75 – 152

Prediction missed · off by 53.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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