Qualification · Qualification 50
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
0 – 118.26
15%85%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
35 – 126
Prediction correct · off by 21.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 163 ±13.5
Season APEX 47.5Event APEX -8.52Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 91
Season APEX 64Event APEX 5.93Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 51.5Event APEX -19.42Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 278.9 ±10.5
Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 94.21Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 24.1Event APEX 8.27Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 15.78Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2095, 2458, 7110
10
/ 100 compatProjected
-22 pts
~0.5 RP (district)
Teams: 2095, 2458, 7110
Auto
1.7 0%
Teleop
-16.5 73%
Endgame
-7.9 35%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 15%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5181, 5684, 5113
73
/ 100 compatProjected
118.3 pts
~2.0 RP (district)
Teams: 5181, 5684, 5113
Auto
26.8 23%
Teleop
69.4 59%
Endgame
22.4 19%
Strengths
- · 5181 anchors offense
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 15%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.49 · Blue 2.04
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score-22pts
Blue projected score118.3pts
Red win probability15%
Event bonus sample162alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 15%, blue 30%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -118.3
- Score range
- -16–134
- Upset likelihood
- 15%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
163Season APEX278.9
1.7Auto26.8
-16.5Teleop69.4
-7.9Endgame22.4
38Consistency74
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 20 | 41 |
| teleop | 4 | 64 |
| endgame | 1 | 21 |
| foul | 10 | 0 |
| total | 35 | 126 |
Result
Final score
35 – 126
Prediction correct · off by 21.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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