Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

39.42 – 52

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 19.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 146.7 ±12.2

1626Falcon Robotics

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 24.81Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11366Red Devil's Redemption

Season APEX 30.4Event APEX -1.75Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5113Combustible Lemons

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 16.36Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 268.8 ±13

2458Team Chaos

Season APEX 64Event APEX 2.81Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 39.57Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2234Alternating Current

Season APEX 96.9Event APEX 9.62Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1626, 11366, 5113

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1626, 11366, 5113

Auto

17.9 53%

Teleop

11.0 32%

Endgame

5.1 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2458, 862, 2234

/ 100 compat

Projected

52 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2458, 862, 2234

Auto

14.3 31%

Teleop

20.4 44%

Endgame

11.8 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score39.4pts

Blue projected score52pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12.6
Score range: 23–68
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 131 vs event baseline 91.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

146.7Season APEX268.8

17.9Auto14.3

11Teleop20.4

5.1Endgame11.8

26Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	15
teleop	23	54
endgame	1	17
foul	15	0
total	45	86

Result

Final score

45 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 19.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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