Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

256.88 – 49.09

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

389 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 77.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 665 ±8.7

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 50.54Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 67.03Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

341Miss Daisy

Season APEX 278.9Event APEX 139.31Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 239.4 ±10.4

10993EP Robotics

Season APEX 92.7Event APEX 7.66Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1168Malvern Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 15.53Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9014Vulcan Mechanics

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 25.9Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4575, 2539, 341

/ 100 compat

Projected

256.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4575, 2539, 341

Auto

39.8 16%

Teleop

161.6 64%

Endgame

51.0 20%

Strengths

· 341 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10993, 1168, 9014

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.1 pts

~0.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10993, 1168, 9014

Auto

7.5 14%

Teleop

35.5 65%

Endgame

11.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.28 · Blue 0.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score256.9pts

Blue projected score49.1pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 207.8
Score range: 33–273
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 461 vs event baseline 87.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

665Season APEX239.4

39.8Auto7.5

161.6Teleop35.5

51Endgame11.6

11Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	13
teleop	265	42
endgame	84	12
foul	5	5
total	389	72

Result

Final score

389 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 77.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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