Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

75 – 86.66

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

57 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 35.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 291.7 ±11.7

10979Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 180.2Event APEX 47.76Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

486Positronic Panthers

Season APEX 81.1Event APEX 25.24Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11366Red Devil's Redemption

Season APEX 30.4Event APEX 2Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 321.9 ±9.8

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 88.01Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

427LANCE-A-LOT

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 25.73Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7110Heights Bytes

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX -27.08Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10979, 486, 11366

/ 100 compat

Projected

75 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10979, 486, 11366

Auto

12.9 22%

Teleop

22.3 38%

Endgame

23.5 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5181, 427, 7110

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5181, 427, 7110

Auto

25.8 34%

Teleop

38.5 51%

Endgame

11.5 15%

Strengths

· 5181 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score75pts

Blue projected score86.7pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11.7
Score range: 59–103
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 197 vs event baseline 88.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

291.7Season APEX321.9

12.9Auto25.8

22.3Teleop38.5

23.5Endgame11.5

19Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	36
teleop	8	81
endgame	27	23
foul	0	0
total	57	140

Result

Final score

57 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 35.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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