Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

176.04 – 115.19

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

233 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 30.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 381.7 ±10.5

341Miss Daisy

Season APEX 278.9Event APEX 132.2Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9014Vulcan Mechanics

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 20.31Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10400DART Doane Academy Robotics Team

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX 23.53Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 331.8 ±11.2

5113Combustible Lemons

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 19.56Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2607The Fighting RoboVikings

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 94.7Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2458Team Chaos

Season APEX 64Event APEX 0.93Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 341, 9014, 10400

/ 100 compat

Projected

176 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 341, 9014, 10400

Auto

30.7 17%

Teleop

123.1 68%

Endgame

26.5 15%

Strengths

· 341 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5113, 2607, 2458

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5113, 2607, 2458

Auto

24.7 20%

Teleop

65.2 53%

Endgame

33.1 27%

Strengths

· 2607 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.7 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score176pts

Blue projected score115.2pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 60.9
Score range: 100–191
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 352 vs event baseline 85.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

381.7Season APEX331.8

30.7Auto24.7

123.1Teleop65.2

26.5Endgame33.1

9Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	33
teleop	136	49
endgame	49	32
foul	5	5
total	233	119

Result

Final score

233 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 30.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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