Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

59.82 – 53.53

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

53 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 12.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 223 ±10.4

1168Malvern Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 24.18Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5113Combustible Lemons

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 19.11Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9027PATH to Domination

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 16.53Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 217.4 ±12.4

427LANCE-A-LOT

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 26.94Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6808William Tennent Robotics

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX 19.49Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2234Alternating Current

Season APEX 96.9Event APEX 7.1Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1168, 5113, 9027

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1168, 5113, 9027

Auto

15.8 28%

Teleop

31.6 55%

Endgame

9.9 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 427, 6808, 2234

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 427, 6808, 2234

Auto

20.2 40%

Teleop

17.3 34%

Endgame

12.7 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score59.8pts

Blue projected score53.5pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.3
Score range: 35–79
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 89 vs event baseline 105.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

223Season APEX217.4

15.8Auto20.2

31.6Teleop17.3

9.9Endgame12.7

51Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	20
teleop	19	10
endgame	16	6
foul	0	0
total	53	36

Result

Final score

53 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 12.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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