Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

143.86 – 66.39

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

208 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 48.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 526.8 ±10.7

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 80.66Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 66.25Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

816Anomaly

Season APEX 33Event APEX -3.05Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 328.3 ±13.5

10979Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 180.2Event APEX 55.84Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2458Team Chaos

Season APEX 64Event APEX 5.4Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

709Femme Tech Fatale

Season APEX 84.1Event APEX 5.15Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5181, 2539, 816

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5181, 2539, 816

Auto

20.3 13%

Teleop

91.7 60%

Endgame

40.7 27%

Strengths

· 5181 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10979, 2458, 709

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10979, 2458, 709

Auto

14.0 25%

Teleop

26.8 47%

Endgame

16.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.85 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score143.9pts

Blue projected score66.4pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 77.5
Score range: 51–159
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 241 vs event baseline 81.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

526.8Season APEX328.3

20.3Auto14

91.7Teleop26.8

40.7Endgame16.2

65Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	21
teleop	116	2
endgame	53	10
foul	0	0
total	208	33

Result

Final score

208 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 48.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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