Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

95.83 – 99.1

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

85 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 34.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 325.4 ±9.8

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 52.69Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1089Team Mercury

Season APEX 150Event APEX 17.41Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9014Vulcan Mechanics

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 25.73Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 427.9 ±9.8

10070Ghost Bots

Season APEX 102.6Event APEX 9.15Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

272Cyber Crusaders

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 75.28Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

486Positronic Panthers

Season APEX 81.1Event APEX 14.67Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 862, 1089, 9014

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 862, 1089, 9014

Auto

3.0 3%

Teleop

53.1 61%

Endgame

31.0 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10070, 272, 486

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10070, 272, 486

Auto

19.9 22%

Teleop

49.0 53%

Endgame

23.0 25%

Strengths

· 272 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score95.8pts

Blue projected score99.1pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.3
Score range: 81–114
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 243 vs event baseline 81.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

325.4Season APEX427.9

3Auto19.9

53.1Teleop49

31Endgame23

24Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	12
teleop	54	84
endgame	12	47
foul	0	15
total	85	158

Result

Final score

85 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 34.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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