Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

77.68 – 47.94

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

42 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 21.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 219.5 ±9.8

10993EP Robotics

Season APEX 92.7Event APEX 19.19Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6808William Tennent Robotics

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX 3.23Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 55.26Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 281.7 ±11.9

708Hatters Robotics

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 15.33Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2234Alternating Current

Season APEX 96.9Event APEX 8.83Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5113Combustible Lemons

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 23.78Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10993, 6808, 4575

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10993, 6808, 4575

Auto

24.8 36%

Teleop

34.6 50%

Endgame

10.1 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 708, 2234, 5113

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 708, 2234, 5113

Auto

11.7 26%

Teleop

6.2 14%

Endgame

27.7 61%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score77.7pts

Blue projected score47.9pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.7
Score range: 33–93
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 82 vs event baseline 83.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

219.5Season APEX281.7

24.8Auto11.7

34.6Teleop6.2

10.1Endgame27.7

15Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	9
teleop	9	19
endgame	16	12
foul	0	0
total	42	40

Result

Final score

42 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 21.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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