Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

106.11 – 127.3

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

37 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 48.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 406.8 ±10.5

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 78.72Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1626Falcon Robotics

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 37.63Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7110Heights Bytes

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX -10.24Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 368.9 ±9.9

2607The Fighting RoboVikings

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 88.19Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

321RoboLancers

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 1.77Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2559Normality Zero

Season APEX 32Event APEX 37.34Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2539, 1626, 7110

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2539, 1626, 7110

Auto

12.5 12%

Teleop

59.7 58%

Endgame

30.1 29%

Strengths

· 2539 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2607, 321, 2559

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2607, 321, 2559

Auto

27.4 20%

Teleop

75.6 56%

Endgame

31.3 23%

Strengths

· 2607 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score106.1pts

Blue projected score127.3pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.2
Score range: 91–142
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 136 vs event baseline 83.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

406.8Season APEX368.9

12.5Auto27.4

59.7Teleop75.6

30.1Endgame31.3

94Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	23
teleop	26	33
endgame	0	38
foul	5	5
total	37	99

Result

Final score

37 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 48.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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