Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

64.97 – 0

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

143 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 61.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 392.9 ±9.8

272Cyber Crusaders

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 61.85Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9027PATH to Domination

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX -11.66Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9014Vulcan Mechanics

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 14.78Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 247 ±12.8

1089Team Mercury

Season APEX 150Event APEX 6.17Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

816Anomaly

Season APEX 33Event APEX -14.93Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2458Team Chaos

Season APEX 64Event APEX 4.69Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 272, 9027, 9014

/ 100 compat

Projected

65 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 272, 9027, 9014

Auto

19.0 26%

Teleop

50.4 68%

Endgame

4.6 6%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1089, 816, 2458

/ 100 compat

Projected

-4.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1089, 816, 2458

Auto

-4.6 0%

Teleop

4.0 43%

Endgame

10.0 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score65pts

Blue projected score-4.1pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65
Score range: -15–80
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 188 vs event baseline 83.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

392.9Season APEX247

19Auto-4.6

50.4Teleop4

4.6Endgame10

67Consistency82

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	9
teleop	101	11
endgame	20	25
foul	0	0
total	143	45

Result

Final score

143 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 61.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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