Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

70.87 – 22.07

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

132 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 50.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 193.1 ±11.2

427LANCE-A-LOT

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 23.86Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 45.96Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11366Red Devil's Redemption

Season APEX 30.4Event APEX 1.05Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 239 ±10.5

10993EP Robotics

Season APEX 92.7Event APEX 14.06Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5684Titans of Tech

Season APEX 24.1Event APEX -0.46Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

708Hatters Robotics

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 8.47Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 427, 4575, 11366

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 427, 4575, 11366

Auto

22.8 31%

Teleop

33.5 45%

Endgame

17.9 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10993, 5684, 708

/ 100 compat

Projected

22.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10993, 5684, 708

Auto

11.5 58%

Teleop

-6.9 0%

Endgame

15.1 77%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.53 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score70.9pts

Blue projected score22.1pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48.8
Score range: 7–86
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 194 vs event baseline 82.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

193.1Season APEX239

22.8Auto11.5

33.5Teleop-6.9

17.9Endgame15.1

92Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	12
teleop	27	14
endgame	13	6
foul	60	30
total	132	62

Result

Final score

132 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 50.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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