Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

131.13 – 76.12

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

99 – 26

Prediction correct · off by 41.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 368.1 ±9.9

708Hatters Robotics

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 20.01Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 95.93Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1626Falcon Robotics

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 15.19Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 317 ±10.5

1089Team Mercury

Season APEX 150Event APEX 37.02Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10400DART Doane Academy Robotics Team

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX 28.79Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

321RoboLancers

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 10.31Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 708, 5181, 1626

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 708, 5181, 1626

Auto

33.8 26%

Teleop

67.3 52%

Endgame

28.7 22%

Strengths

· 5181 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1089, 10400, 321

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1089, 10400, 321

Auto

13.3 18%

Teleop

37.5 50%

Endgame

23.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.62 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score131.1pts

Blue projected score76.1pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 55
Score range: 57–150
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 125 vs event baseline 105.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

368.1Season APEX317

33.8Auto13.3

67.3Teleop37.5

28.7Endgame23.6

73Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	1
teleop	54	16
endgame	18	4
foul	0	5
total	99	26

Result

Final score

99 – 26

Prediction correct · off by 41.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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