Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

31.05 – 115.28

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

74 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 45.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 194.4 ±12.2

10070Ghost Bots

Season APEX 102.6Event APEX 9.08Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6226Blue Devils

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 4Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10400DART Doane Academy Robotics Team

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX 17.97Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 342.4 ±9.3

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 47.1Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 70.51Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6808William Tennent Robotics

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX -2.33Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10070, 6226, 10400

/ 100 compat

Projected

31.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10070, 6226, 10400

Auto

12.9 86%

Teleop

-15.3 0%

Endgame

17.4 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 862, 5181, 6808

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 862, 5181, 6808

Auto

22.3 20%

Teleop

65.5 59%

Endgame

22.4 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.82 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score31.1pts

Blue projected score115.3pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -84.2
Score range: 17–129
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 238 vs event baseline 78.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

194.4Season APEX342.4

12.9Auto22.3

-15.3Teleop65.5

17.4Endgame22.4

29Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	42
teleop	22	87
endgame	19	25
foul	15	10
total	74	164

Result

Final score

74 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 45.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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