Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

55.79 – 73.62

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

35 – 290

Prediction correct · off by 118.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 184.6 ±13.5

9014Vulcan Mechanics

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 17.33Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

816Anomaly

Season APEX 33Event APEX 17.19Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

709Femme Tech Fatale

Season APEX 84.1Event APEX 21.27Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 364.6 ±11.1

341Miss Daisy

Season APEX 278.9Event APEX 61.35Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2559Normality Zero

Season APEX 32Event APEX 1.78Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1626Falcon Robotics

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 10.49Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9014, 816, 709

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9014, 816, 709

Auto

9.6 16%

Teleop

37.7 65%

Endgame

10.9 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 341, 2559, 1626

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 341, 2559, 1626

Auto

24.1 32%

Teleop

46.4 61%

Endgame

5.8 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.14 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score55.8pts

Blue projected score73.6pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.8
Score range: 42–88
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 325 vs event baseline 75.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

184.6Season APEX364.6

9.6Auto24.1

37.7Teleop46.4

10.9Endgame5.8

77Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	48
teleop	5	186
endgame	20	56
foul	0	0
total	35	290

Result

Final score

35 – 290

Prediction correct · off by 118.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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