Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

44.34 – 123.29

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

48 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 10 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 339.6 ±12.4

10993EP Robotics

Season APEX 92.7Event APEX 15.55Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2234Alternating Current

Season APEX 96.9Event APEX 17.95Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1089Team Mercury

Season APEX 150Event APEX 10.84Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 275 ±12.4

2095Direct Current

Season APEX 47.5Event APEX 26.05Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 91

10400DART Doane Academy Robotics Team

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX 29.78Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 67.46Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10993, 2234, 1089

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10993, 2234, 1089

Auto

4.8 12%

Teleop

9.0 22%

Endgame

27.4 67%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2095, 10400, 5181

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2095, 10400, 5181

Auto

15.5 13%

Teleop

69.5 59%

Endgame

32.9 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.8 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score44.3pts

Blue projected score123.3pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -78.9
Score range: 31–136
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 155 vs event baseline 75.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

339.6Season APEX275

4.8Auto15.5

9Teleop69.5

27.4Endgame32.9

20Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	23
teleop	25	63
endgame	12	21
foul	0	0
total	48	107

Result

Final score

48 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 10 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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