Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

120.82 – 24.95

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

87 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 33.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 466.8 ±9.8

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 83.04Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5113Combustible Lemons

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 4.61Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10070Ghost Bots

Season APEX 102.6Event APEX 33.17Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 211.8 ±10.4

486Positronic Panthers

Season APEX 81.1Event APEX 16.02Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1168Malvern Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 11.51Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7110Heights Bytes

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX -2.58Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2539, 5113, 10070

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2539, 5113, 10070

Auto

12.3 12%

Teleop

46.1 43%

Endgame

47.7 45%

Strengths

· 2539 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 486, 1168, 7110

/ 100 compat

Projected

25 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 486, 1168, 7110

Auto

1.8 6%

Teleop

14.5 45%

Endgame

16.0 50%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.89 · Blue 0.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score120.8pts

Blue projected score25pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 16%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 95.9
Score range: 11–135
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 146 vs event baseline 75.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

466.8Season APEX211.8

12.3Auto1.8

46.1Teleop14.5

47.7Endgame16

100Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	16
teleop	42	27
endgame	33	11
foul	0	5
total	87	59

Result

Final score

87 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 33.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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