Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

94.51 – 85.5

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

128 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 24 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 485.2 ±11.4

341Miss Daisy

Season APEX 278.9Event APEX 57.82Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

709Femme Tech Fatale

Season APEX 84.1Event APEX 16.75Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

708Hatters Robotics

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 19.94Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 331.1 ±12.4

6226Blue Devils

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 19.78Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11366Red Devil's Redemption

Season APEX 30.4Event APEX -6.88Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

272Cyber Crusaders

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 72.6Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 341, 709, 708

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 341, 709, 708

Auto

17.4 20%

Teleop

62.6 71%

Endgame

8.7 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6226, 11366, 272

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6226, 11366, 272

Auto

22.7 24%

Teleop

74.4 79%

Endgame

-3.1 0%

Strengths

· 272 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score94.5pts

Blue projected score85.5pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9
Score range: 73–108
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 199 vs event baseline 73.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

485.2Season APEX331.1

17.4Auto22.7

62.6Teleop74.4

8.7Endgame-3.1

35Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	19
teleop	46	24
endgame	31	18
foul	10	10
total	128	71

Result

Final score

128 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 24 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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