Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

95.98 – 16.72

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

75 – 176

Prediction missed · off by 90.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 228.9 ±13.7

2234Alternating Current

Season APEX 96.9Event APEX 13.11Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 55.11Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2095Direct Current

Season APEX 47.5Event APEX 27.76Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 390.7 ±9.8

10070Ghost Bots

Season APEX 102.6Event APEX -2.26Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10979Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 180.2Event APEX 16.88Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 2.1Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2234, 4575, 2095

/ 100 compat

Projected

96 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2234, 4575, 2095

Auto

19.3 20%

Teleop

57.5 58%

Endgame

21.5 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10070, 10979, 862

/ 100 compat

Projected

16.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10070, 10979, 862

Auto

7.2 40%

Teleop

11.5 63%

Endgame

-0.5 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.7 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score96pts

Blue projected score16.7pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 79.3
Score range: 4–109
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 251 vs event baseline 69.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

228.9Season APEX390.7

19.3Auto7.2

57.5Teleop11.5

21.5Endgame-0.5

4Consistency129

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	24
teleop	10	27
endgame	37	50
foul	15	75
total	75	176

Result

Final score

75 – 176

Prediction missed · off by 90.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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