Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

50.01 – 67.43

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

22 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 25.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 200.5 ±11.7

11366Red Devil's Redemption

Season APEX 30.4Event APEX 6.7Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10070Ghost Bots

Season APEX 102.6Event APEX 27.97Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9014Vulcan Mechanics

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 15.34Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 358.6 ±10.4

10584Ridge Robotics

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 35.29Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10979Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 180.2Event APEX 34.55Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10993EP Robotics

Season APEX 92.7Event APEX -2.41Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11366, 10070, 9014

/ 100 compat

Projected

50 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11366, 10070, 9014

Auto

16.2 42%

Teleop

8.4 22%

Endgame

14.3 37%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10584, 10979, 10993

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10584, 10979, 10993

Auto

17.8 28%

Teleop

27.7 43%

Endgame

18.8 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.12 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score50pts

Blue projected score67.4pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.4
Score range: 31–86
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 67 vs event baseline 105.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

200.5Season APEX358.6

16.2Auto17.8

8.4Teleop27.7

14.3Endgame18.8

45Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	11
teleop	10	19
endgame	7	15
foul	0	0
total	22	45

Result

Final score

22 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 25.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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