Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

50 – 94.36

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

29 – 152

Prediction correct · off by 39.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 135.3 ±12.2

816Anomaly

Season APEX 33Event APEX 23.86Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5684Titans of Tech

Season APEX 24.1Event APEX 7.49Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

427LANCE-A-LOT

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 18.65Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 422.6 ±10.5

10400DART Doane Academy Robotics Team

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX 17.4Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10584Ridge Robotics

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 7.35Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 69.61Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 816, 5684, 427

/ 100 compat

Projected

50 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 816, 5684, 427

Auto

16.1 34%

Teleop

17.2 36%

Endgame

14.1 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10400, 10584, 2539

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10400, 10584, 2539

Auto

10.3 11%

Teleop

55.0 58%

Endgame

28.8 31%

Strengths

· 2539 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.97 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score50pts

Blue projected score94.4pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -44.4
Score range: 38–106
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 181 vs event baseline 68.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

135.3Season APEX422.6

16.1Auto10.3

17.2Teleop55

14.1Endgame28.8

135Consistency110

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	8
teleop	14	87
endgame	3	57
foul	0	0
total	29	152

Result

Final score

29 – 152

Prediction correct · off by 39.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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