Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

81.42 – 26.6

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

142 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 34 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 451.6 ±9.8

10979Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 180.2Event APEX 6.14Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1168Malvern Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 28.51Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 46.77Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 296.7 ±12.4

5113Combustible Lemons

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX -4.96Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

709Femme Tech Fatale

Season APEX 84.1Event APEX 19.8Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1089Team Mercury

Season APEX 150Event APEX 11.76Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10979, 1168, 5181

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10979, 1168, 5181

Auto

25.8 32%

Teleop

39.4 49%

Endgame

15.9 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases
· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5113, 709, 1089

/ 100 compat

Projected

26.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5113, 709, 1089

Auto

-2.0 0%

Teleop

18.4 69%

Endgame

10.4 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.63 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score81.4pts

Blue projected score26.6pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54.8
Score range: 14–94
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 176 vs event baseline 69.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

451.6Season APEX296.7

25.8Auto-2

39.4Teleop18.4

15.9Endgame10.4

79Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	5
teleop	87	7
endgame	32	22
foul	0	0
total	142	34

Result

Final score

142 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 34 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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