Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

68.1 – 64.49

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

79 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 6.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 225.4 ±10.7

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 50.82Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

816Anomaly

Season APEX 33Event APEX 20.23Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX -2.95Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 267.9 ±9.8

9014Vulcan Mechanics

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 20.74Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

708Hatters Robotics

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 26.42Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

427LANCE-A-LOT

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 17.33Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4575, 816, 862

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4575, 816, 862

Auto

18.3 27%

Teleop

51.3 75%

Endgame

-1.3 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9014, 708, 427

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9014, 708, 427

Auto

8.0 12%

Teleop

45.8 70%

Endgame

11.6 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score68.1pts

Blue projected score64.5pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.6
Score range: 51–81
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 141 vs event baseline 69.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

225.4Season APEX267.9

18.3Auto8

51.3Teleop45.8

-1.3Endgame11.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	9
teleop	37	18
endgame	28	30
foul	0	5
total	79	62

Result

Final score

79 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 6.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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