Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

82.19 – 42.45

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

33 – 103

Prediction missed · off by 54.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 179 ±11

10400DART Doane Academy Robotics Team

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX 29.58Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5113Combustible Lemons

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 6.66Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

486Positronic Panthers

Season APEX 81.1Event APEX 45.95Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 489.8 ±10.7

321RoboLancers

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX -20.47Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6226Blue Devils

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 10.22Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 52.7Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10400, 5113, 486

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10400, 5113, 486

Auto

11.0 13%

Teleop

48.0 59%

Endgame

22.9 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 321, 6226, 2539

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 321, 6226, 2539

Auto

2.8 7%

Teleop

19.3 49%

Endgame

17.0 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score82.2pts

Blue projected score42.5pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 39.7
Score range: 29–95
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 136 vs event baseline 70.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

179Season APEX489.8

11Auto2.8

48Teleop19.3

22.9Endgame17

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	19
teleop	6	55
endgame	15	29
foul	0	0
total	33	103

Result

Final score

33 – 103

Prediction missed · off by 54.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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