Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

57.94 – 98.97

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

35 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 40.5 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 227.8 ±11.6

1626Falcon Robotics

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 30.9Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1089Team Mercury

Season APEX 150Event APEX 22.83Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5684Titans of Tech

Season APEX 24.1Event APEX 4.21Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 411.6 ±9.8

341Miss Daisy

Season APEX 278.9Event APEX 62.86Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7110Heights Bytes

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 11.24Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9027PATH to Domination

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 24.87Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1626, 1089, 5684

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1626, 1089, 5684

Auto

9.9 18%

Teleop

33.2 60%

Endgame

12.6 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 341, 7110, 9027

/ 100 compat

Projected

99 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 341, 7110, 9027

Auto

26.1 27%

Teleop

62.5 64%

Endgame

9.1 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score57.9pts

Blue projected score99pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41
Score range: 45–112
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 76 vs event baseline 73.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

227.8Season APEX411.6

9.9Auto26.1

33.2Teleop62.5

12.6Endgame9.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	18
teleop	8	14
endgame	15	4
foul	0	5
total	35	41

Result

Final score

35 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 40.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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