Qualification · Qualification 10
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
13.4 – 12.82
50%50%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
21 – 31
Prediction missed · off by 12.9 points
Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 244.8 ±11.7
Season APEX 64Event APEX 2.81Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 102.6Event APEX 0.3Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 10.29Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 185.4 ±13.9
Season APEX 32Event APEX -0.28Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 96.9Event APEX 10.29Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91
Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 2.81Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2458, 10070, 427
16
/ 100 compatProjected
13.4 pts
~1.2 RP (district)
Teams: 2458, 10070, 427
Auto
6.9 55%
Teleop
0.3 2%
Endgame
5.3 42%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 18%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2559, 2234, 6226
15
/ 100 compatProjected
12.8 pts
~1.2 RP (district)
Teams: 2559, 2234, 6226
Auto
6.6 55%
Teleop
-0.8 0%
Endgame
6.2 52%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 18%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.24
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score13.4pts
Blue projected score12.8pts
Red win probability50%
Event bonus sample162alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 18%, blue 20%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 0.6
- Score range
- 0–26
- Upset likelihood
- 50%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
244.8Season APEX185.4
6.9Auto6.6
0.3Teleop-0.8
5.3Endgame6.2
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 8 | 9 |
| teleop | 5 | 15 |
| endgame | 8 | 7 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 21 | 31 |
Result
Final score
21 – 31
Prediction missed · off by 12.9 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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