Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

155.84 – 97.04

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

176 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 36.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 373.8 ±11.4

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 55.85Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

709Femme Tech Fatale

Season APEX 84.1Event APEX 6.93Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2607The Fighting RoboVikings

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 93.06Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 213.1 ±10.5

486Positronic Panthers

Season APEX 81.1Event APEX 24.44Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 55.06Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5684Titans of Tech

Season APEX 24.1Event APEX 17.54Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4575, 709, 2607

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4575, 709, 2607

Auto

33.3 22%

Teleop

63.4 42%

Endgame

53.2 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 486, 862, 5684

/ 100 compat

Projected

97 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 486, 862, 5684

Auto

22.0 25%

Teleop

45.1 51%

Endgame

21.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.7 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score155.8pts

Blue projected score97pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 58.8
Score range: 78–175
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 221 vs event baseline 105.2.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

373.8Season APEX213.1

33.3Auto22

63.4Teleop45.1

53.2Endgame21.8

4Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	3
teleop	110	36
endgame	37	6
foul	0	0
total	176	45

Result

Final score

176 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 36.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.