Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

255.18 – 175.93

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

257 – 203

Prediction correct · off by 14.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 535.6 ±9.3

2607The Fighting RoboVikings

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 94.53Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7110Heights Bytes

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX -3.2Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

341Miss Daisy

Season APEX 278.9Event APEX 163.85Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 381.2 ±9.3

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 96.01Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

486Positronic Panthers

Season APEX 81.1Event APEX 24.65Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 55.27Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2607, 7110, 341

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2607, 7110, 341

Auto

51.1 21%

Teleop

143.7 58%

Endgame

51.4 21%

Strengths

· 341 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5181, 486, 862

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5181, 486, 862

Auto

38.8 23%

Teleop

97.1 57%

Endgame

34.3 20%

Strengths

· 5181 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.82 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score255.2pts

Blue projected score175.9pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 79.3
Score range: 158–273
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 460 vs event baseline 102.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

535.6Season APEX381.2

51.1Auto38.8

143.7Teleop97.1

51.4Endgame34.3

0Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	36
teleop	137	100
endgame	74	57
foul	0	10
total	257	203

Result

Final score

257 – 203

Prediction correct · off by 14.4 pts

Match videos

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