Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

44.03 – 107.28

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 31.3 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 318.4 ±19.8

9022MC Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 128.6Event APEX 4.28Rank 9Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

2656Quasics

Provisional

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 47.46Rank 11Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3260SHARP

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX -7.71Rank 16Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 374.8 ±40.9

3173IgKnighters

Season APEX 154.2Event APEX 27.85Rank 8Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9999Off-Season Demo Team 9999

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 12.65Rank 10Record 4-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 66.78Rank 3Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9022, 2656, 3260

/ 100 compat

Projected

44 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9022, 2656, 3260

Auto

33.5 76%

Teleop

3.9 9%

Endgame

6.6 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3173, 9999, 48

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.3 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3173, 9999, 48

Auto

34.4 32%

Teleop

62.0 58%

Endgame

10.9 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.21 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score44pts

Blue projected score107.3pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample44alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -63.2
Score range: 21–130
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 214 vs event baseline 126.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

318.4Season APEX374.8

33.5Auto34.4

3.9Teleop62

6.6Endgame10.9

139Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	48
teleop	15	109
endgame	16	12
foul	0	0
total	45	169

Result

Final score

45 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 31.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree