Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

196.27 – 4.8

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

152 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 32.2 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 289 ±20

11456UMWACC Ruff Creek RoboMiners

Provisional

Season APEX 40.5Event APEX 23.56Rank 13Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9475Mon Valley Mammoths

Provisional

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 53.27Rank 12Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

5740Trojanators

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 119.44Rank 1Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 81.6 ±57.3

9998Off-Season Demo Team 9998

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 14.18Rank 6Record 5-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9999Off-Season Demo Team 9999

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -2.42Rank 10Record 4-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3260SHARP

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX -6.96Rank 16Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11456, 9475, 5740

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.3 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11456, 9475, 5740

Auto

27.6 14%

Teleop

107.9 55%

Endgame

60.8 31%

Strengths

· 5740 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9998, 9999, 3260

/ 100 compat

Projected

4.8 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9998, 9999, 3260

Auto

29.5 100%

Teleop

-11.8 0%

Endgame

-12.9 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.54 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score196.3pts

Blue projected score4.8pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample44alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 191.5
Score range: -18–219
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 177 vs event baseline 130.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

289Season APEX81.6

27.6Auto29.5

107.9Teleop-11.8

60.8Endgame-12.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	6
teleop	81	12
endgame	24	7
foul	0	0
total	152	25

Result

Final score

152 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 32.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree