Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

55.36 – 157.2

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

43 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 18.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 315.6 ±18.2

9653O.V.R.T.

Provisional

Season APEX 85.6Event APEX 4.06Rank 14Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3260SHARP

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX -9.01Rank 16Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

3504Girls of Steel

Season APEX 148.4Event APEX 60.31Rank 4Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 320 ±43

9998Off-Season Demo Team 9998

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 46.37Rank 6Record 5-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9022MC Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 128.6Event APEX 50.73Rank 9Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

4467Titanium Titans

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 60.1Rank 7Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9653, 3260, 3504

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.4 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9653, 3260, 3504

Auto

13.7 25%

Teleop

30.2 54%

Endgame

11.8 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9998, 9022, 4467

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.2 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9998, 9022, 4467

Auto

39.1 25%

Teleop

74.5 49%

Endgame

39.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.03 · Blue 2.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score55.4pts

Blue projected score157.2pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample44alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -101.8
Score range: 28–184
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 175 vs event baseline 147.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

315.6Season APEX320

13.7Auto39.1

30.2Teleop74.5

11.8Endgame39.8

24Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	43
teleop	23	63
endgame	14	26
foul	0	0
total	43	132

Result

Final score

43 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 18.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree