Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

298.51 – 109.26

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

260 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 40.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 577.8 ±12.2

5740Trojanators

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 136.71Rank 1Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 107.97Rank 2Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3173IgKnighters

Season APEX 154.2Event APEX 53.83Rank 8Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 327.4 ±42.2

9999Off-Season Demo Team 9999

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 16.25Rank 10Record 4-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2656Quasics

Provisional

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 24.23Rank 11Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8393The Giant Diencephalic BrainSTEM Robotics Team

Season APEX 219.2Event APEX 68.78Rank 5Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5740, 117, 3173

/ 100 compat

Projected

298.5 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5740, 117, 3173

Auto

83.4 28%

Teleop

167.1 56%

Endgame

49.7 17%

Strengths

· 5740 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9999, 2656, 8393

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.3 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9999, 2656, 8393

Auto

34.7 31%

Teleop

52.0 47%

Endgame

24.6 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.61 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score298.5pts

Blue projected score109.3pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample44alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 75%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 189.3
Score range: 82–326
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 326 vs event baseline 147.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

577.8Season APEX327.4

83.4Auto34.7

167.1Teleop52

49.7Endgame24.6

27Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	51
teleop	153	15
endgame	32	0
foul	0	0
total	260	66

Result

Final score

260 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 40.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree