Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

144.05 – 82.33

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

195 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 32.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 445.5 ±14.1

8393The Giant Diencephalic BrainSTEM Robotics Team

Season APEX 219.2Event APEX 68.78Rank 5Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3504Girls of Steel

Season APEX 148.4Event APEX 60.31Rank 4Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4150FRobotics

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 14.96Rank 15Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 169.1 ±44

9999Off-Season Demo Team 9999

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 16.25Rank 10Record 4-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9022MC Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 128.6Event APEX 50.73Rank 9Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

11456UMWACC Ruff Creek RoboMiners

Provisional

Season APEX 40.5Event APEX 15.35Rank 13Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8393, 3504, 4150

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.1 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8393, 3504, 4150

Auto

28.0 19%

Teleop

80.7 55%

Endgame

37.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9999, 9022, 11456

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.3 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9999, 9022, 11456

Auto

26.5 34%

Teleop

31.9 40%

Endgame

20.6 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.06 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score144.1pts

Blue projected score82.3pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample44alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 61.7
Score range: 55–171
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 264 vs event baseline 147.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

445.5Season APEX169.1

28Auto26.5

80.7Teleop31.9

37.6Endgame20.6

60Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	34
teleop	115	18
endgame	55	17
foul	0	0
total	195	69

Result

Final score

195 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 32.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree