Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

223.44 – 133.37

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

90 – 91

Prediction missed · off by 87.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 356.7 ±19.4

2656Quasics

Provisional

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 38.21Rank 11Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5740Trojanators

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 147.56Rank 1Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9475Mon Valley Mammoths

Provisional

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 37.67Rank 12Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 148.4 ±57.3

3504Girls of Steel

Season APEX 148.4Event APEX 64.08Rank 4Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9998Off-Season Demo Team 9998

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 49.76Rank 6Record 5-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9999Off-Season Demo Team 9999

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 19.53Rank 10Record 4-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2656, 5740, 9475

/ 100 compat

Projected

223.4 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2656, 5740, 9475

Auto

53.2 24%

Teleop

120.2 55%

Endgame

47.1 21%

Strengths

· 5740 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3504, 9998, 9999

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.4 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3504, 9998, 9999

Auto

41.4 31%

Teleop

74.6 55%

Endgame

18.8 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.19 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score223.4pts

Blue projected score133.4pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample44alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 90.1
Score range: 106–250
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 181 vs event baseline 150.3.

← Previous

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

356.7Season APEX148.4

53.2Auto41.4

120.2Teleop74.6

47.1Endgame18.8

27Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	23
teleop	37	39
endgame	11	29
foul	0	0
total	90	91

Result

Final score

90 – 91

Prediction missed · off by 87.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree