Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

214.41 – 75.57

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

276 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 34.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 459.4 ±16.1

9653O.V.R.T.

Provisional

Season APEX 85.6Event APEX -5.61Rank 14Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 80.07Rank 3Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5740Trojanators

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 139.95Rank 1Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 173.2 ±43

4150FRobotics

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 13.65Rank 15Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

9475Mon Valley Mammoths

Provisional

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 40.61Rank 12Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9999Off-Season Demo Team 9999

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 21.31Rank 10Record 4-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9653, 48, 5740

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.4 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9653, 48, 5740

Auto

43.2 21%

Teleop

111.3 53%

Endgame

56.0 27%

Strengths

· 5740 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4150, 9475, 9999

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.6 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4150, 9475, 9999

Auto

7.1 10%

Teleop

50.2 70%

Endgame

14.0 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.48 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score214.4pts

Blue projected score75.6pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample44alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 138.8
Score range: 49–241
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 345 vs event baseline 149.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

459.4Season APEX173.2

43.2Auto7.1

111.3Teleop50.2

56Endgame14

66Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	31
teleop	149	24
endgame	47	14
foul	0	0
total	276	69

Result

Final score

276 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 34.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree