Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

116.89 – 51.23

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

194 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 48.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 484.6 ±19.3

9022MC Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 128.6Event APEX 23.33Rank 9Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9653O.V.R.T.

Provisional

Season APEX 85.6Event APEX -10.91Rank 14Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 104.47Rank 2Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 217.4 ±20.5

3260SHARP

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX -14.27Rank 16Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

11456UMWACC Ruff Creek RoboMiners

Provisional

Season APEX 40.5Event APEX 16.76Rank 13Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9475Mon Valley Mammoths

Provisional

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 48.74Rank 12Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9022, 9653, 117

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.9 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9022, 9653, 117

Auto

36.2 32%

Teleop

46.9 42%

Endgame

28.7 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3260, 11456, 9475

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.2 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3260, 11456, 9475

Auto

1.1 2%

Teleop

28.4 61%

Endgame

17.4 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.08 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score116.9pts

Blue projected score51.2pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample44alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65.7
Score range: 24–144
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 226 vs event baseline 148.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

484.6Season APEX217.4

36.2Auto1.1

46.9Teleop28.4

28.7Endgame17.4

35Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	5
teleop	105	18
endgame	41	9
foul	0	0
total	194	32

Result

Final score

194 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 48.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree