Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

206.38 – 170.4

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

85 – 202

Prediction missed · off by 76.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 494 ±14.5

3504Girls of Steel

Season APEX 148.4Event APEX 84.79Rank 4Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4467Titanium Titans

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 67.67Rank 7Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3173IgKnighters

Season APEX 154.2Event APEX 53.92Rank 8Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 231.1 ±41.8

5740Trojanators

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 135.95Rank 1Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4150FRobotics

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 11.82Rank 15Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

9999Off-Season Demo Team 9999

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 22.63Rank 10Record 4-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3504, 4467, 3173

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.4 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3504, 4467, 3173

Auto

57.3 27%

Teleop

124.2 59%

Endgame

29.2 14%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5740, 4150, 9999

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.4 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5740, 4150, 9999

Auto

46.0 27%

Teleop

93.2 54%

Endgame

32.1 19%

Strengths

· 5740 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score206.4pts

Blue projected score170.4pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample44alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36
Score range: 143–233
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 287 vs event baseline 148.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

494Season APEX231.1

57.3Auto46

124.2Teleop93.2

29.2Endgame32.1

27Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	26
teleop	35	124
endgame	4	52
foul	5	0
total	85	202

Result

Final score

85 – 202

Prediction missed · off by 76.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree