Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

196.22 – 147.27

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

199 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 6.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 378.6 ±42.2

9998Off-Season Demo Team 9998

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 48.85Rank 6Record 5-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 104.81Rank 2Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2656Quasics

Provisional

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 42.56Rank 11Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 480.3 ±15.2

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 80.67Rank 3Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11456UMWACC Ruff Creek RoboMiners

Provisional

Season APEX 40.5Event APEX 13.66Rank 13Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

8393The Giant Diencephalic BrainSTEM Robotics Team

Season APEX 219.2Event APEX 52.94Rank 5Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9998, 117, 2656

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.2 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9998, 117, 2656

Auto

50.9 25%

Teleop

101.7 51%

Endgame

48.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 48, 11456, 8393

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.3 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 48, 11456, 8393

Auto

27.0 19%

Teleop

77.4 54%

Endgame

38.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score196.2pts

Blue projected score147.3pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample44alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 77%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48.9
Score range: 121–222
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 356 vs event baseline 146.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

378.6Season APEX480.3

50.9Auto27

101.7Teleop77.4

48Endgame38.3

10Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	35
teleop	113	62
endgame	42	60
foul	0	0
total	199	157

Result

Final score

199 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 6.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree