Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

195.55 – 119.56

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

323 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 112.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 307.4 ±41.4

3173IgKnighters

Season APEX 154.2Event APEX 39.76Rank 8Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9998Off-Season Demo Team 9998

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 34.47Rank 6Record 5-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5740Trojanators

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 121.32Rank 1Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 444.5 ±19.1

9475Mon Valley Mammoths

Provisional

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 38.75Rank 12Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 69.91Rank 3Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9022MC Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 128.6Event APEX 10.9Rank 9Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3173, 9998, 5740

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.5 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3173, 9998, 5740

Auto

60.3 31%

Teleop

106.5 54%

Endgame

29.3 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9475, 48, 9022

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.6 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9475, 48, 9022

Auto

25.6 21%

Teleop

67.0 56%

Endgame

27.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.18 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score195.5pts

Blue projected score119.6pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample44alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 76
Score range: 95–221
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 541 vs event baseline 138.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

307.4Season APEX444.5

60.3Auto25.6

106.5Teleop67

29.3Endgame27.4

31Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	103	29
teleop	158	89
endgame	62	60
foul	0	40
total	323	218

Result

Final score

323 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 112.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree