Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

167.77 – 23.31

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

180 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 23 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 454 ±13.5

5740Trojanators

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 116.31Rank 1Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8393The Giant Diencephalic BrainSTEM Robotics Team

Season APEX 219.2Event APEX 58.45Rank 5Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3260SHARP

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX -6.99Rank 16Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 271.7 ±19.8

4150FRobotics

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 9.6Rank 15Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

9653O.V.R.T.

Provisional

Season APEX 85.6Event APEX -30.92Rank 14Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2656Quasics

Provisional

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 44.63Rank 11Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5740, 8393, 3260

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.8 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5740, 8393, 3260

Auto

49.4 30%

Teleop

89.3 53%

Endgame

28.7 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4150, 9653, 2656

/ 100 compat

Projected

23.3 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4150, 9653, 2656

Auto

7.2 30%

Teleop

-13.7 0%

Endgame

30.4 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.43 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score167.8pts

Blue projected score23.3pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample44alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 144.5
Score range: -2–193
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 237 vs event baseline 137.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

454Season APEX271.7

49.4Auto7.2

89.3Teleop-13.7

28.7Endgame30.4

89Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	12
teleop	103	34
endgame	41	11
foul	0	0
total	180	57

Result

Final score

180 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 23 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree