Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

95.49 – 125.1

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

152 – 124

Prediction missed · off by 28.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 352 ±41.4

9999Off-Season Demo Team 9999

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 7.85Rank 10Record 4-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3260SHARP

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX -15Rank 16Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 102.64Rank 2Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 298.5 ±41.3

9998Off-Season Demo Team 9998

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 39.88Rank 6Record 5-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 73.47Rank 3Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4150FRobotics

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 11.75Rank 15Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9999, 3260, 117

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.5 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9999, 3260, 117

Auto

33.4 35%

Teleop

42.8 45%

Endgame

19.2 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9998, 48, 4150

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.1 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9998, 48, 4150

Auto

1.1 1%

Teleop

93.7 75%

Endgame

30.3 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score95.5pts

Blue projected score125.1pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample44alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29.6
Score range: 70–150
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 276 vs event baseline 137.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

352Season APEX298.5

33.4Auto1.1

42.8Teleop93.7

19.2Endgame30.3

109Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	25
teleop	85	51
endgame	27	48
foul	5	0
total	152	124

Result

Final score

152 – 124

Prediction missed · off by 28.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree