Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

208.55 – 75.26

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

259 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 82.1 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 430.2 ±17.7

9022MC Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 128.6Event APEX 8.83Rank 9Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

5740Trojanators

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 111.43Rank 1Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3504Girls of Steel

Season APEX 148.4Event APEX 88.29Rank 4Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 575.2 ±15.5

9653O.V.R.T.

Provisional

Season APEX 85.6Event APEX -44.81Rank 14Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 83.54Rank 2Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8393The Giant Diencephalic BrainSTEM Robotics Team

Season APEX 219.2Event APEX 36.53Rank 5Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9022, 5740, 3504

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.6 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9022, 5740, 3504

Auto

53.7 26%

Teleop

111.6 54%

Endgame

43.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9653, 117, 8393

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.3 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9653, 117, 8393

Auto

23.6 31%

Teleop

40.5 54%

Endgame

11.2 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.41 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score208.6pts

Blue projected score75.3pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample44alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 133.3
Score range: 52–232
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 448 vs event baseline 126.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

430.2Season APEX575.2

53.7Auto23.6

111.6Teleop40.5

43.2Endgame11.2

56Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	66
teleop	134	69
endgame	50	54
foul	0	0
total	259	189

Result

Final score

259 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 82.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree