Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

220.06 – 252.57

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

342 – 220

Prediction missed · off by 77.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 516.1 ±14.4

1511Rolling Thunder

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 92.04Rank 5Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4050Biohazard

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 5.13Rank 48Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 122.89Rank 11Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 476.5 ±11.7

1601Quantum Samurai

Season APEX 118.6Event APEX 23.51Rank 20Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4027Centre Punch

Season APEX 202.6Event APEX 102.48Rank 14Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9406TechJunior

Season APEX 155.3Event APEX 126.58Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1511, 4050, 117

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.1 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 1511, 4050, 117

Auto

30.8 14%

Teleop

116.6 55%

Endgame

65.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1601, 4027, 9406

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.6 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1601, 4027, 9406

Auto

49.9 20%

Teleop

142.2 57%

Endgame

58.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score220.1pts

Blue projected score252.6pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -32.5
Score range: 191–282
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 562 vs event baseline 160.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

516.1Season APEX476.5

30.8Auto49.9

116.6Teleop142.2

65.2Endgame58.3

39Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	54
teleop	200	89
endgame	101	72
foul	0	5
total	342	220

Result

Final score

342 – 220

Prediction missed · off by 77.3 pts

Match videos

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