Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

353.06 – 211.21

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

494 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 71.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 538.9 ±11.7

3990Tech for Kids

Season APEX 192.3Event APEX 146Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2641Pittsburgh Central Catholic Robotics

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 14Rank 43Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4028The Beak Squad

Season APEX 286.2Event APEX 193.06Rank 6Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 371.9 ±13.9

3173IgKnighters

Season APEX 154.2Event APEX 111.94Rank 8Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2614Mountaineer Area RoboticS (MARS)

Season APEX 107.6Event APEX 60.37Rank 33Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

451Cat Attack Robotics

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 38.9Rank 44Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3990, 2641, 4028

/ 100 compat

Projected

353.1 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3990, 2641, 4028

Auto

95.9 27%

Teleop

185.1 53%

Endgame

71.2 20%

Strengths

· 4028 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3173, 2614, 451

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.2 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3173, 2614, 451

Auto

31.5 15%

Teleop

130.9 64%

Endgame

43.5 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.17 · Blue 0.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score353.1pts

Blue projected score211.2pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 141.9
Score range: 183–381
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 707 vs event baseline 157.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

538.9Season APEX371.9

95.9Auto31.5

185.1Teleop130.9

71.2Endgame43.5

0Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	91	32
teleop	303	118
endgame	100	48
foul	0	15
total	494	213

Result

Final score

494 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 71.4 pts

Match videos

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