Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

456.08 – 238.05

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

425 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 50.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 650.2 ±14.3

340G.R.R. (Greater Rochester Robotics)

Season APEX 265.2Event APEX 188.27Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4991Horsepower

Provisional

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 29.22Rank 45Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

3015Ranger Robotics

A+

Season APEX 312.5Event APEX 238.59Rank 2Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 516.1 ±14.4

1511Rolling Thunder

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 97.78Rank 5Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4050Biohazard

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 11.84Rank 48Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 128.43Rank 11Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 340, 4991, 3015

/ 100 compat

Projected

456.1 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 340, 4991, 3015

Auto

98.7 22%

Teleop

254.6 56%

Endgame

101.6 22%

Strengths

· 3015 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1511, 4050, 117

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.1 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1511, 4050, 117

Auto

31.5 14%

Teleop

129.9 57%

Endgame

68.5 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.39 · Blue 0.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score456.1pts

Blue projected score238.1pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 218
Score range: 210–484
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 594 vs event baseline 155.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

650.2Season APEX516.1

98.7Auto31.5

254.6Teleop129.9

101.6Endgame68.5

0Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	104	28
teleop	259	79
endgame	57	57
foul	5	5
total	425	169

Result

Final score

425 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 50.1 pts

Match videos

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