Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

147.75 – 114.45

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

118 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 27.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 342.3 ±16

1816"The Green Machine"

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 32.07Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4269CardinalBots

Provisional

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 66.91Rank 10Record 6-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

1708AMP'D Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX 48.77Rank 24Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 368.2 ±17

7515Dark Side Robotics

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 13.16Rank 21Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2656Quasics

Provisional

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 38.53Rank 7Record 7-1-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5740Trojanators

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 62.76Rank 13Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1816, 4269, 1708

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.8 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 1816, 4269, 1708

Auto

20.1 14%

Teleop

81.6 56%

Endgame

43.6 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7515, 2656, 5740

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.5 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 7515, 2656, 5740

Auto

21.2 18%

Teleop

70.5 60%

Endgame

25.0 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score147.8pts

Blue projected score114.5pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.3
Score range: 86–176
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 208 vs event baseline 156.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

342.3Season APEX368.2

20.1Auto21.2

81.6Teleop70.5

43.6Endgame25

78Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	38
teleop	57	51
endgame	3	1
foul	30	0
total	118	90

Result

Final score

118 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 27.1 pts

Match videos

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